While the market as a whole churns through another volatile stretch - say, any big events looming next week? - one sector has remained an outperformer this year: mining. Whether triggered by the Fed hike of last December, fundamentals in the industry, or renewed hope, 2016 appears to have marked an end to a multi-year bear market in the sector.
Mining remains a field of investing lore, in some sense - the dream of big returns and unearthing a new find still fuel both companies and individual investors. Still, there are rewards to be had in dem dar hills, as 2016 has shown, as one is able to navigate the pratfalls.
We invited four of our mining focused marketplace authors to chime in on their views on the sector as we approach the end of the year. They highlight how they handle commodity price risk, how they value the underlying commodities, and which sorts of ideas they find or are finding in the sector right now.
Our esteemed panel:
Seeking Alpha: It's been fair to say that for the last several years - say, since 2012 - the mining space has been a tough one. That has seemed to turn pretty decisively so far in 2016. How do you explain the run this year, and is there something fundamental that will keep this going?
Andrew Hecht, author of the Hecht Commodity Report: Mining stocks take their lead from the underlying price action in the commodities they produce. In late 2015 and early 2016, many commodities reached significant bottoms. Gold and silver hit $1046 and $13.60 in December 2015, copper traded to lows of $1.9355 in January and oil reached its nadir at $26.05 on February 11 to name a few. Since then, most raw material prices have bounced back from lows. I believe that the bottoms were the result of overly bearish sentiment in markets causing over-extensions on the downside. Commodities are often the most volatile asset class and the equities of those companies that produce raw materials reflect the variance.
Demographic trends support higher prices for commodities which are finite assets in the years ahead but it will be anything but a smooth ride higher. Population has more than doubled over the past 50 years and commodities are finite assets. Rising global demand for raw materials is a natural extension of increasing world population. As wealth increases, people desire more stuff... stuff is often made from commodities. Volatile markets tend to present trading rather than long-term investment opportunities.
Itinerant, author of Itinerant's Musings: Late 2011 was the turning point really, the start of the latest bear market for metal prices - and by association the metal miners. And quite frankly, I am not fully convinced the market has turned for good already. Gold and silver have rallied and precious metals miners have seen some relief, but base metals are still very much a mixed bag, iron ore prices are still too low for most miners to be profitable, and uranium is printing new multi-year lows. I do see some green shoots, but I am not a convinced resource sector bull at this point in time.
If I had to choose one fundamental factor that has changed this year, however, I'd point to the renewed willingness of capital markets to put money into mining projects again. A great improvement to previous years, and one that could fuel a lot of upside if it can be maintained.
The Critical Investor, author of Mining for Alpha: This turn started initially just for gold, right after the first rate hike. I'm familiar with lots of sentiment drivers for gold but don't believe in any fundamentals, as the price of gold is controlled by very speculative futures trading. The often mentioned driver - "negative real interest rates" (Federal interest rate minus CPI) - didn't explain the crash in 2012-2013 for example, as it still was pretty negative. My view is that as long as there is a lot of uncertainty in the US stockmarkets, with valuations close to all-time highs but underlying macro fundamentals being weak, and eventual downside risks being triggered by events like a Trump election or Syria escalation, gold will maintain its current position as a safe haven/fear trade.
Some months after gold, silver caught up for unknown reasons, copper didn't drop to forecast 1.85 levels as China started importing like crazy and out of the blue, and zinc finally started its foreseen recovery on the back of depleted stockpiles and mine closures. On top of that, very surprising revivals in iron ore and lastly coal could be observed. I don't see fundamentals picking up for copper in the next two years as China is still not improving growth (and I still don't believe current government numbers), maybe in three years time, zinc should be fine. As iron ore and coal are connected to China growth as well, I don't see continuous improvement here for the next two years.
SomaBull, author of The Gold Edge: First I would say that I don't believe it was a coincidence that the price of gold bottomed in December 2015 when the Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds rate for the first time in almost a decade. Rising interest rates means rising inflation, and gold (along with silver) responds favorably to that environment. I expect the rate of inflation to continue to increase over the next few years, along with interest rates.
But there were two other factors at work here as well that explain the resurgence in the mining industry this year:
1. There was a point in late 2015 where the price of gold got so low that it threatened to disrupt the supply/demand fundamentals. While there is plenty of above ground stock of the precious metal, the market continually needs new ounces to come online every year in order keep up with money supply growth. If you get into a situation where the total above ground gold supply becomes stagnant, but worldwide M2 keeps increasing, then you create a severe imbalance. Gold at $1,000 per ounce is unsustainable over the medium to long-term as the industry isn't profitable at that price.
Mining companies had cut costs to the bone and there was simply no room left for more reductions. Exploration and development had been severely curtailed, many high-cost mines had been shut down, and production across the industry was starting to decline. Worldwide gold mine production fell 2% in Q4 2015, the first quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2008. Total gold supply (including recycled) fell 4% in 2015 - its lowest level since 2009. The industry is still not healthy. It needs $1,400-$1,500 gold in order to get the drill bits turning aggressively again, to get large projects built, and to get supply to turnaround. Gold is going to have to go up to that price range or that severe imbalance that I discussed will become a reality.
2. The Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) - which tracks many of the companies involved in the gold mining industry - declined 84% from its peak in 2011 to its low in January 2016. To put that in perspective, during the Great Depression, the Dow experienced an 89% drop. The mining companies themselves were trading at severe discounts to their fair values. Entire sectors don't just vanish; eventually, the HUI and the value of these gold companies were going to revert back to the mean.
SA: Mining, like few other fields - biotech and energy come to mind - seems to have a stark split between companies that are strictly in the exploration and development stage and companies that are actually profitable (in theory). Where do you focus as an investor, and how do you navigate the particular risks and concerns that come with either?
Andrew Hecht: My expertise and training is in the raw material markets rather than the equity markets. However, I use my knowledge in a myriad of commodities markets to locate opportunities and spot cheap or expensive companies with exposure to the commodities sector. While mining and producers immediately come to mind, remember that almost all companies are consumers of commodities therefore most all equities have some degree of exposure to raw material prices. When it comes to production, the difference between development and exploration create different risk profiles.
Development and extraction of mining properties requires a combination of an understanding of the specific commodity, the management record of the team, the geopolitical risk factors of the location and other multifaceted factors that will impact the stock price. When it comes to purely exploration equities in the commodity space, I always start with a view that these companies are lotto tickets with very low odds of success and go from that assumption as I examine the numbers. Exploration is often a sales job and it takes a critical eye to remove the hype and promises from the real viable potential winners.
Itinerant: That's a cute comparison with biotech, hadn't thought of the similarities in this way before.
Risks shift significantly as one moves along the development path from exploration, to development, to actual mining - as do the tools available for risk management. Personally, I feel most comfortable investing in projects with plenty of information available in independent technical reports plus supporting data. Call me weird, but I actually enjoy reading these reports, verifying the numbers, and making sure all Ts are crossed, and all Is are dotted. I feel most comfortable investing once I have understood a project on the technical and economical level. Additionally, I try and talk to management and technical staff to get a feel about their personal approach, and to make sure I am comfortable with the company's vibes.
Exploration stage projects usually have comparatively little information in the public domain, simply because it hasn't been collected yet. Many juniors compensate with promotion and boundaries between real data and promotional fluff are often blurred. It takes a lot to convince me to invest in a junior explorer, and I usually only do so if I know management well enough and ideally if I have had a chance to visit the project.
The Critical Investor: I focus on explorers and development stage companies, because these types of companies can, in general, generate the largest return in the shortest amount of time, on its own. Producers are dependent on metal prices, and in case of precious metals, this is extremely hard to forecast. There are very few producers that are strong growth stories without acquisitions, which are dilutive or worsen balance sheets, so the value add is small or non-existent without metal leverage. Therefore, I don't navigate risks or concerns related to producers.
For explorers and developers it's a case of continuously monitoring specific risks and/or concerns, for example are drill results or economic study results (or quality of those studies in general) according to reasonable expectations, or are financings being done at beneficial terms (no large discounts, no full warrants, no free trading shares, short closing period).
SomaBull: When the bull market in precious metals began, my focus was on the gold and silver producers in the $250 million to $2 billion range - what I considered the "sweet spot" of the sector. That was where the real meat was at in terms of finding stocks with the best risk/reward opportunities. That's still the case today, although the market caps have shifted higher to the $750 million to $5 billion range as valuations have expanded. I could have gone up the food chain and turned my attention to the large cap producers, but they obviously won't outperform smaller rivals on average in a bull market (given their size). At the opposite end of the spectrum you have the junior explorers. Many gold and silver investors focus on this area of the market as they are looking for maximum leverage. But that just isn't where the consistent gains are made.
Many explorers often lag by a significant degree, especially early on in a bull market. Complicating matters further, it's not uniform in terms of participation rate among these micro-cap exploration companies, as only a select number will put in stellar returns. If you don't pick the right stocks, you could end up underperforming the entire sector. That doesn't mean I shun explorers completely, in the end, a few of them have their place in my portfolio (about 10-15% total weighting).
My main focus is still on the companies in the sweet spot of the sector, such as: B2Gold (NYSEMKT:BTG), Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI), IAMGOLD (NYSE:IAG), Hecla (NYSE:HL), Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS), Buenaventura (NYSE:BVN), and Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE). Coeur has increased 537% from the January 2016 lows in the sector, the other stocks mentioned are up 300% on average during that time. Some of the top performing explorers like Gold Standard Ventures (NYSEMKT:GSV), Atlantic Gold (OTCPK:SPVEF), Bear Creek Mining (OTCPK:BCEKF), Exeter Resource (NYSEMKT:XRA), Midas Gold (OTCQX:MDRPF), and Pilot Gold (OTCPK:PLGTF) are matching those gains, but most of the explorer field is trailing far behind. I'm sticking with the small and mid-cap producers, and making sure I'm well diversified to minimize risk.
SA: Commodity price risk is by definition inherent in investing in mining companies - you have to understand both the company and the pricing input. How do you deal with that in your analysis and investing? Hedging out the risk, building in a margin of safety in your analysis (or sensitivity analysis), something else, all of the above?
Andrew Hecht: I am purely driven by the commodity risk, therefore I would never hedge it out, rather I seek it and invest in companies that I believe will maximize an expected market move in the underlying commodity in question. I tend to look for companies that have the potential to outperform (or in some cases underperform) the action in a commodity because of leverage created by production potentials as investment candidates.
One example would be investments in the large and small cap gold mining stocks in late 2015 and early 2016. These companies outperformed the commodity by many multiples for most of the rally. Additionally, on the consumer side, I look for correlations between commodities and companies that depend on the price of that commodity or a part of market structure in the raw material markets for profitability. Examples would include Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and the price of coffee beans, Hershey (NYSE:HSY) and the price of cocoa, or Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) and the levels of soybeans and ethanol processing spreads.
Itinerant: First of all I keep close tabs on metal prices and try to understand what drivers are at play in each case; and I invest accordingly. I rarely hedge my trades, but prefer to invest in solid projects with good management and plenty of downside protection; and I am very patient to make sure I get what I determine is a good entry price. I'd much rather miss an opportunity than chase the price higher.
It usually takes me quite some time until I finally pull the trigger on an investment, and once I do I have usually convinced myself to a degree that I don't require to hedge the trade for comfort. A diversified portfolio of well researched investments is what I aim for.
The Critical Investor: Preferably I try to find companies with projects that are economic at prices 10-15% below spot at the moment. This changes when metal prices are going parabolic, then the risk could be discounted higher. A sensitivity analysis is useful to construct your own margin of safety. Nevertheless, stocks will go down when metal prices go down, whether a project is still economic or not. And mining stocks have a tendency to go down with the broad markets as well when sporting high values (before the crash, see 2008), despite metal prices being neutral or even up slightly, so it's not a fact that strong metal prices support mining stocks at all times.
I basically follow the large trends in metals and markets, and if those are breaking fundamental supports which turn bulls into bears, then I'm selling, generally after 20-25% profit losses.
SomaBull: Speaking from the precious metal side of the commodity complex, if I'm invested in this sector, I want full exposure to a rising price environment. However, I will hedge my mining stock positions aggressively if I believe that the physical metals have moved too far to the upside and I foresee a correction coming. Gold and silver companies are highly sensitive to fluctuations in metal prices. This is about managing the risk, and the only way to do that in the precious metal stocks is to have good understanding of the underlying commodity itself and which direction it could be headed.
Commodity price risk also varies from company to company, given the drastic difference between mining firms in terms of cash costs. Some low cost gold producers like New Gold (NYSEMKT:NGD) can withstand a lower price environment, other higher cost producers are going to come under more pressure in that situation (especially if their balance sheets are weak). But the higher cost producers also offer more leverage to a rising gold price. If I deem that the price of gold will increase significantly, then these above average cost miners will see big returns and I could allocate more capital to some of those. Conversely, if gold the gold price is still fairly low and gyrating in a +$100/-$100 range, then the low cost producers will see higher consistent cash flow and likely outperform.
SA: The value of gold - what should it be determined on, and how important is it to you in valuing firms in the space, either as an input or an indicator? (You can think of this as the Warren Buffett question)
Andrew Hecht: You lose me when you mention Warren Buffett. My opinion of the man is that he has been allowed to invest on a playing field that is not level with the rest of the market. I have direct experience dealing with Mr. Buffett as he ran Salomon Brothers when I ran a department at the firm and my view is based on my direct observations.
Gold is an asset like no other, and has value because it is a precious, rare, and lustrous precious metal that people have always desired to own. Gold has special value because approximately 20% of all of the gold ever mined in the history of the world is held in central bank vaults and those monetary authorities call their gold holdings foreign exchange reserves. Gold is a currency, a hedge against inflation, it is an instrument that can be used for flight capital or insurance against instability or uncertainty. The central bank QE and low interest rate programs have been very bullish for gold over the past eight years.
Gold is an indicator, when it goes up, fear and uncertainty are rising. Gold is also an input, it is an asset that should be in every portfolio. For gold producing companies, the equation is simple, market price minus production cost equals profitability. For exploration companies, the reward-risk ratio better be pretty good to attract me and the probable reserves need to be in areas that make sense from a historical and political perspective. Gold has boom and bust potential when it comes to exploration, the BreX scandal is an example of how even the most sophisticated investors can become infatuated with a scam in gold.
Itinerant: Ha! Gold is pretty much useless, and therefore worthless. It's the ultimate greater fool media, and perhaps that's why it has worked so well as money throughout history. OK, tongue comes out of my cheek now.
I look at gold as a well-established currency, with floating exchange rates into other currencies.
If you evaluate gold miners, then the price of gold is an input, as are cost factors etc. Never forget that the price of gold in the local currency drives the profitability of a gold mine as long as services and consumables can be sourced locally.
The Critical Investor: As I described above, I don't think there are fundamentals for gold, just sentiment drivers, which vary all the time in dependency and intensity. The price of gold is of course very important in valuing any gold explorer/developer/producer, as it determines the amount of economic ounces in the ground, current or future profitability/CF and net asset value.
SomaBull: Many investors believe that the U.S. Dollar Index determines the value of gold, but that is an inaccurate assumption as the price of gold is set by the money supply. They will never move up in lockstep - as gold will go through bull and bear markets - but the price will continually rise in value over the years and decades as the money supply expands.
The value of gold is only part of the equation when analyzing mining companies. I'm looking at production expansion opportunities, exploration potential, balance sheets, and other factors as well. All of these variables - including the price of gold - determine how I value a mining company.
SA: While predictions are hard for a variety of reasons, it seems unlikely we're going to have a massive set of interest rate hikes in the next couple of years. What sort of macro environment are you preparing for, and what does that mean for the stocks you own or follow?
Andrew Hecht: I believe the interest rate environment will remain historically low and that favors commodity prices as it lowers the cost of carrying inventories. Therefore, I believe that the bull market that began in late 2015 and early 2016 in commodities will carry on along a very bumpy and volatile road. While I am overall bullish on raw materials, I expect that the central bank policies will create many volatile periods in markets. Volatility leads to divergence and for me, divergence creates the most profitable opportunities. I will be looking for pairs trades between stocks and commodities or within the commodities space, i.e. inter-commodity spreads.
Itinerant: I think we will see more of the same. An economy grinding on in relatively low gear, the occasional overhyped rate hike, and eventually, a market correction we have to have.
I don't see a massive demand surge for base metals in such an environment, so supply will be the governing part of the equation when we look at trends for the associated miners.
As for gold, I am not sold on the bull run thesis just yet and I remain nimble. I will continue to buy quality, and stay away from highly-levered producers. And I'll search for catalysts that might drive a stock regardless of what the spot market does.
The Critical Investor: By no means do I see inflation coming up, more likely deflation. Therefore, coupled with the massive debt loads in the US, I don't see a way out of the current, extremely low interest rates. However, this also means the Fed doesn't have the instrument anymore of lowering rates further meaningfully, and it already tried QE to no avail besides running up the US markets to all-time highs. So if the US economy were to really start breaking down for some reason, gold as a fear trade or safe haven would maintain its status in my view.
This is already visible with the US elections, news about the Clinton emails caused an improvement of the chances for Trump, so gold ran up > classic fear trade (and rightly so in my view). If the US stockmarkets would break down for some reason, it could happen again that the (gold-related) mining stocks would break down alongside it like in 2008, but most mining stocks don't have the rich valuations of 2008 before the crash, so the breakdown will be less damaging in my view for them, especially if gold would hold or rise.
SomaBull: I'm forecasting continued modest growth in GDP over the next few years, but I believe that inflation will start to pick up during that time as well. With the Fed Funds rate only at 0.5%, and Fed Chair Yellen now openly discussing "plausible ways" to run the U.S. economy hot and "pondering" whether a "high-pressure economy" could help fix some of the damage, the path of least resistance for inflation is to the upside. Yellen is also implying that the Fed wouldn't mind if the core PCE ran a little above their 2% target level. The precious metals sector should continue to gain traction in that type of environment.
SA: How do you see the significant rebound in commodity prices this year impacting miners' capital allocation decisions (e.g. asset sales, M&A, investments to increase production)?
Andrew Hecht: When miners make more money, as they have been recently, they tend to increase production. We witnessed this in until 2011-2012 when they took on more debt and pumped up production. Glencore (OTCPK:GLNCY) is a perfect example of a company that increased debt to add production output to its balance sheet. However, the bear market from 2012-2015 taught many of the world's biggest producers a lesson and they have been cutting debt levels. I expect this to continue in 2017 as the sector becomes healthier but if the bull starts to charge, they will not be able to help themselves and will likely ramp up spending on future production. Like commodities themselves, mining is a cyclical business and although miners should cut debt when things are looking the best they tend to do exactly the opposite.
Itinerant: As I said earlier, I don't really see a general and significant rebound in metal prices per se. Some metals have regained some ground after several years of bear market, others have barely moved, and uranium keeps falling off a cliff. What has changed, however, is the re-emergence of availability of capital. Juniors can raise cash again, and projects are getting financed. Precious metal projects seem to receive preferential treatment, and it has been conductive to all the activities listed in the question.
The larger miners will try to replenish their reserve base and I expect continued M&A. However, it is important to remember that the larger miners own plenty of marginal ounces in the ground already, and will be looking for high-quality ounces only. That eliminates a lot of companies frequently touted as takeover targets, and leaves a relatively discrete sub-set of potential targets in my opinion.
On the other side of the coin, life has just gotten harder for the streaming companies as juniors have financing options now, and a streaming deal is often less attractive than a bought deal.
The Critical Investor: I'm not following the producers in detail, but for example the time of divesting assets to cut debt is more or less behind us, majors and mid tiers are looking into acquisitions again, like for example Kaminak by Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), Lake Shore Gold by Tahoe (NYSE:TAHO) or Reservoir by Nevsun (NYSEMKT:NSU).
SomaBull: I don't believe that the market has risen enough for these mining companies to start making drastic changes to capital allocation. There is still going to be some hesitation by these mining executives in terms of loosening up the purse strings. But there is definitely some increased spending in capex occurring, and I'm seeing slightly higher exploration budgets as well. But it will take another year or two of consistently rising gold and silver prices before we see a more impactful change in terms of deploying capital.
There are a few companies that have just plowed through this downturn and kept spending, B2Gold (BTG) is an example. Companies like this will continue to be aggressive and spend money. The majority of mining companies though have been extremely cautious and I believe that will remain the case for near-future. I would look for a bump up in M&A starting next year, especially as market cap expansion occurs.
What got you into mining as an investor?
Andrew Hecht, author of the Hecht Commodity Report: I began my career in 1981 at Philipp Brothers, the world's largest commodities trading company in the world at the time. I learned the commodities business from the bottom up and did business with many of the producing and consuming companies in the business for years. I then ran departments at Salomon Brothers, the financial division of the firm in the early 1990s. My interest in mining equities is an extension of my experience in the raw material markets.
Itinerant: Quite simply, a personal and professional interest in mining.
The Critical Investor: The real possibility of extremely high returns in short periods of time in bull markets
SomaBull: I have been an investor in the stock market for over 18 years now, but I was never focused on the gold and silver sector until 2003. That was when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was drastically lowering interest rates in order to prevent deflation from occurring here in the U.S., as the Fed Funds rate was reduced from 6.5% in late 2000, to just 1% by mid-2003. Greenspan's loose monetary policy started to concern me as he seemed hell-bent on stirring the inflation pot. We were starting to see sizable increases in asset prices (particularly in the U.S. housing market).
I wanted to find investments that would protect my purchasing power but also take advantage of the inflation that Greenspan was introducing to the system. Gold and silver were just coming out of a 20 year bear market and prices for the two were slowing creeping higher. The stars seemed aligned for a powerful bull market in precious metals, so in 2003 and 2004, I bought a sizable portion of physical gold and silver. I also started researching the mining companies at that time, as they provided leverage to the price of the underlying metal. Ever since then, researching these companies and finding the true gems has been a passion of mine.
SA: What's a current favorite idea?
Andrew Hecht: I believe that we are seeing an important shift in the political status quo. Brexit and the most divisive Presidential election in the U.S. in my lifetime are two examples. Political upheaval is here to stay and that means more uncertainty and volatility in markets across all asset classes. My favorite idea is to stay loose and concentrate on seizing opportunities created by market divergences while using discipline, tight stops and clear profit targets in markets. It is likely to get pretty wild in markets in the weeks and months to come leading to lots of opportunities. I am looking for investment singles and doubles, swinging for home runs increases the chances of striking out!
Itinerant: I think zinc has favourable fundamentals going forward. And I like Roxgold (OTC:ROGFF) as a gold mining investment. Further afield, I am taking a very hard look at Iluka Resources (OTCPK:ILKAY) at the moment and I like what I see.
The Critical Investor: I have a number of strong new plays lined up for my subscribers soon, so I'm not disclosing them, but one of the companies that I like a lot is Atlantic Gold (OTCPK:SPVEF), a long-time holding for which I estimate a low-risk double in a year at current gold prices, and eventually, much more. I met management at a conference in Zurich this week for an update, they are ticking all boxes and know very well what they are doing, are not in this for a quick flip but want to build a bigger company as they have done in the past, looking at other acquisitions through an expansion of their debt facility, and their MRC project under construction is progressing well and has a lot of upside potential in the next few years.
SomaBull: There are many companies in the sector that I like, both in terms of valuation and growth prospects. It just depends on which sub-section of the market we are talking about. There are a handful of gold producers in the 1-3 million ounce range - in terms of annual output. They aren't senior producers at this stage, but they still do produce significant quantities of the precious metal. Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) is in this category and is my favorite amongst the group. The company bought the remaining 50% of the Round Mountain mine and 100% of the Bald Mountain mine from Barrick earlier this year (both located in Nevada).
Kinross has always been higher risk because of the locations of its assets. Acquiring these mines has reduced the overall risk of the company, and I also believe they are going to squeeze a lot of gold out of these two operations over the next 5 years. The company's Tasiast phase 1 expansion will ramp up in 2018, and it will result in a large increase in gold output from that mine, as well as a significant drop in cash costs.
Kinross' mines in Russia continue to produce gold at an incredibly low all-in sustaining cost, and exploration potential around these very high grade deposits is significant. It's a riskier jurisdiction but it has been generating tons of cash flow for the company over the years. For under $5 billion, you get a 2.5-3.0 million ounce gold producer with a good balance sheet, a nice pipeline of projects, and a lower risk profile. The value in the name is quite good at the moment.
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